OPS’s Are Bigger in Texas
Mark will be doing this when Boras squeezes $100 million out of somebody this winter.
Mark Teixeira. Big Tex. And, after this coming offseason, Mr. Overpaid.
The slugging first baseman may not finish the season in Atlanta, but he’s sure to cash in this winter when he explores free agency for the first time. With an agent like Scott Boras, contractual expectations go up significantly for a player, and his new club will likely regret it the same way I do when I eat fast food four times in a week. To expect six years is wishful thinking. To expect ten years – a full decade – is insane, at least in the minds of some.
I don’t think Mark Teixiera is a 10-year contract player, neither do I feel that he deserves $20MM a season over a period of time greater than three or four years. He plays the baseball field’s least demanding defensive position (very well, that is) and will turn 29 years old early into the 2009 campaign. Who in their right mind would give the guy more than five years?
Now, let’s ignore the monetary concerns and focus purely on his performance. After all, he could end up in New York, Boston, LA, or another big market that doesn’t care what they pay him.
As of this writing, Tex is hitting to the tune of a 135 OPS+. Seems like All-Star caliber stuff, but when we look at what other first basemen in the National League are doing, it loses its charm. Here are the 1B OPS+ Leaders of the NL:
1. Albert Pujols: 179 OPS+
2. Lance Berkman: 178 OPS+
3. Mark Teixiera: 135 OPS+
4. Adrian Gonzalez: 129 OPS+
5. Conor Jackson: 128 OPS+
6. Prince Fielder: 124 OPS+
This argument would be even more compelling if he was, say, number eight of 16 National League first basemen. He’s better than I gave him credit for in the beginning of this article – he’s still an All-Star player. But, when you’re that far seperated from Pujols and Big Puma, third place seems like nothing more than a consolation prize. Adrian Gonzalez (129), Conor Jackson (128) and Prince Fielder (124) are right on his tail, and Ryan Howard (110) has been enduring a terrible season by his standards.
No, I do not think that Conor Jackson is comparable to Mark Teixeira. They are not near-equals. I simply wanted to point out the fact that he is not a $20MM player. Hopefully most GM’s out there will realize this too.
July 25, 2008 at 3:45 am
I think there’s some flaws in the logic
Your using Berkman, who’s having his best season so far as comparason. in terms of career context Berkman is only marginally better , espically considering that 3 of the 4 best season for Berkman came from the last 5 years too (he’s 5 years older than Teix)
Next, your not adjusting for inflations.
I think while Teix is likely an inferior player to Berkman (who is a borderline HOF talent at least, while Pujols is a no doubter HOFer) the difference isn’t extreme though, and he’s skill set is likely to be sustained better in the longer run. (of course luck plays into this )
I don’t think he’s “worth” a 10/200 per say, but adjusting for marginal value, and inflation, and relative avalibity. I think it’s at least fathomable. though something along Giambi’s contract line would seem to be more reasonable.
July 25, 2008 at 3:46 am
I should have elaborated on how most teams have better options, like Giambi for NYY, Youkilis for BOS, etc.
July 25, 2008 at 3:56 am
It does speak volumes about Mark T.’s worth when the sixth best First Basemen (in terms of OPS+) is just eleven percentage points below the third best First Basemen in the National League.
I think he is worth a little more than David Ortiz’s contract (4-years/$52M, club option for $12.5M), maybe in the $15-17M range rather than that $20M plateau.
Love the look of the blog man, hope you can keep it going.
July 25, 2008 at 4:11 am
Joe, then we must consider this, Giambi is almost as likely to have another 04/07 run then a 05/06/08 run going foward. and even if he doesn’t, he’s good for maybe 2 more season at best. (and either way he’s glove sucks) who will you look for after this?
The prospect of having 1 year of the Kevin Millar style or bad Giambi junks of the world will hurt a perinial contending team more than the prospect of saving some marginal values by going short terms.
As for Youkilis, his career OPS+ is below average for a 1Bman, but consideirng that it’s OBP driven and he’s got a pretty good glove that might make him slightly above average. remember that he’s not exactly very young either. and before you point to his stats this year. remember this.
Career pre / post break splits
Pre: 308 /.400 /.495
Post: 245 /.352 /.390
If he follow this trend he’ll probably end this year somewhere in the 120s OPS+ . which is pretty solid, but that’s about it for him.
July 25, 2008 at 4:14 am
Maybe I’m just being old fashioned but I don’t believe in wasting money on a position that is deep on every team in baseball, the cold corner. I mean, who doesn’t have a power bat with limited defensive ability (i.e. unable to play middle infield or something). That’s why Milwaukee didn’t care about LaPorta that much, I think.
As a rule I wouldn’t sign first basemen to contracts unless they were to buy out arb years or extensions or what have you. It’s the easiest position to fill, the stars are only so much better than the average ones.
July 25, 2008 at 4:24 am
The problem is that while it may seem deep, very few of those guys are truely consistently good on a year to year bases
Giambi was terrible and hurt last year, Conor Jackson missed about a month last year and until this year was a below average 1B (he’s young though. and isn’t a FA until 2 more seasons unless i’m mistaken) guys like Gonzalez / Fielder / Howard won’t become avalible for a loooong while (if ever)
Your choices going foward involve Tiex vs the likes of Giambi and Delgado, unless you think you can develope a 1B soon (unlikely, Miranda can’t hit lefty and E.Duncan simply can’t hit. even if Montero is a 1B there is at least 4+ season before he’s a legit major league hitter).
I can understand your logic, but putting a lot of doe on a 1B still makes more sense than doing the same on… say a pitcher.
July 25, 2008 at 4:33 am
All in all I think we’re better off toughing it out at 1B and spending our money on OF or starting pitching. I mean, you can struggle to the postseason with a great pitching staff and a lousy offense, not the other way around (2007 Phillies nonwithstanding).
If the brass decided one big contract was to be added, I vote CC. He gives us a better chance at number 27, IMO.
July 25, 2008 at 4:33 am
And let’s not forget about Jorge, he may end up at 1B, for good or nil.
July 25, 2008 at 4:43 am
BTW I appreciate the interest in the blog RollingWave! Haha thanks for checking it out. I might want to collaborate with any other River Ave veterans, send me an email from the Contact page at the top right of the links box.
July 25, 2008 at 4:44 am
Ditto Jamal.
July 26, 2008 at 7:35 am
But Joe, the point is that the Yankees have more money than several low payroll teams combined comming off the books this year. and it’s unlikely that they cut their payroll drastically. so if they have 70-80M per to burn in the off season market. I don’t see why they can’t just sign every one they feel interested in.
For example
CC + Teix + Manny
even if you give all 3 of them 20 per, your still SHEDDING payroll.
July 26, 2008 at 10:02 pm
I agree with your spending philosophy for the offseason, but then we could end up with a logjam; i.e. a player who isn’t really that great anymore, paying him big bucks, and being forced to pencil him in the lineup everyday. Giambi was like this a little bit but has rebounded.
July 26, 2008 at 10:03 pm
More specifically I mean in the final years of a big cotnract (if Tex gets 6 or 7 years, the last two years or so could be annoying).