An Eye Towards ’09

At 6 games behind, with the Red Sox surging and Toronto creeping, the season is looking pretty desolate for the Yankees. At this point last year they had taken over second place securely. It looks like Brian Cashman is going to return to the front office next year, so I’m going to lay out my Christmas list for himself and the Brothers Stein.

LeBron wears Yankee caps and he's not playing for them. Yet.

• Pick a starting right fielder. With the Nady acquisition turning out to be a tremendous steal, I wonder about the future of Bobby Abreu. At 34 years old he is still capable of his recent seasonal numbers for a few more go-arounds, but it could well cost us $45MM over 3 years. With the X-Man arbitration-eligible after 2008, the business decision would be to simply let Abreu walk, offer arbitration to him, get rejected (in all likelihood, though an acceptance would be a huge bonus for the Yanks, allowing another one-year deal at below market rate) and receiving Type-A draft pick compensation. Abreu’s recent comments lead me to believe that NYY will try to bring him back for something reasonable, like two years, $25MM. If Nady and Damon split CF with the occasional spot start by Melky, Gardner or Christian, that still leaves room for Abreu. Hideki Matsui will have to DH nearly full-time in my estimation. My move: Sign Abreu to 2/$25MM deal. If he wants three years, let him walk.
• Find an ace starting pitcher. Wang is not a No. 1, Joba cannot be taxed for more than 180 innings and Phil Hughes basically lost a year of development due to injuries. We need a Cy Young guy, and his name is CC. Sabathia will either be a Yankee or a Dodger/Angel, because no other teams have the payroll flexibility (Mets and Red Sox possibly, but they have long-term pitching contracts on the books already). If CC doesn’t mind the NY spotlight, and the dough, he should be playing in Yankee Stadium II. Otherwise, he could opt for the competitive yet relaxed confines of Angel Stadium. The Dodgers are the longshot of the three, due to Los Angeles’ recent spending habits (Pierre, Jones, etc.) Ben Sheets is also going to be a free agent, and his price tag – as well as his durability – should be discounted compared to Sabathia. If CC nets something like 7/$150MM, Sheets might not get half that. He looks like a solid bet for 4/$70MM, but then again, Gil Meche got 5/$55MM and he is not nearly the pitcher Big Ben is. My move: Sign CC for 7/$150MM. Overpay as much as needed. Only a West Coast preference would keep him off of my club. Sheets is a longshot as a complementary signing, but if he could be had for 4/$70MM, the injury risk is worth it. The odds of him playing for NY are weak though, because the Yanks are not looking for discounts; they simply want the best.
• Don’t be tempted to overpay in cash or prospects for a first baseman. Mark Teixeira may stick with the Angels and Prince Fielder is going to be a pricey commodity on the trade market. First base is offensively one of the strongest and one of the least demanding on defense, so big splashes are not necessary. My move: Re-sign Jason Giambi to a 2/$30MM contract after buying out his option. Make a trade for a younger first baseman (not a prospect, just somebody who can play D) such as Conor Jackson, as Damon/Abreu/Matsui/Giambi cannot be expected to play every day. Wilson Betemit could be involved in the trade. The latter part is not essential but helpful.

If Cashman gets these three items crossed off the list, I think the Yanks will be in great shape for number 27 in ’09.

The X-Factor and D-Mart

You’ve heard the rumors. You’ve seen the BottomLine on ESPN. You know that Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte have been traded to the New York Yankees. The Pirates will receive pitchers Ross Ohlendorf, George Kontos, Phil Coke and outfielder Jose Tabata. I’m going to spare you the bull and tell you upfront that I love this trade, as a diehard Yankee fan. Brian Cashman netted two months and another full season of control over Nady, who will fill the left field vacancy right now and could take over for Abreu near the ‘Porch in 2009. Marte is not only a dominant power lefty reliever but has a club option for ’09, and of course, the Yanks could always deny the option, offer arbitration, and either keep him as a result or lose him to free agency and get Type-A compensation (His level of performance is essentially a forgone conclusion at this point).

Xavier Nady is currently sporting a line of .330/.383/.535. It’s significantly above his career averages and he is not going to keep that up in Yankee Stadium.

Broken bats usually don't work, X-Man.

However, I think it’s fair to expect something in the vein of .270/.330/.450, and I’ll take that any day. He’s really an average corner outfielder, as his career 108 OPS+ shows, but when he’s shoving a wet noodle like Brett Gardner out of the lineup, it doesn’t really matter how good he really is. He’s average or better, and right-handed, which the Bombers wanted first and foremost.

Looks like a 93-mph fastball from here.

Damaso Marte has pitched in the American League before, most recently as a member of the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox. I don’t like his ERA much (3.47), but he is striking out a guy an inning and holds a stingy WHIP of 1.157. That should translate well, and his role will be reduced from closer to middle/set-up reliever. Once again this seems like a good example of why ERA doesn’t mean that much, especially for relief pitchers. He doesn’t put guys on base. End of story. The Yankees have one of the game’s best ‘pens as it is, so I don’t feel Marte does anything worse than add depth, and at best, gives the Yanks a dependable veteran lefty who can handle hitters on both sides of the plate.

Ross Ohlendorf had been pitching as a starter once again at Triple-A Scranton, with great effectiveness to boot. It’s easy to why – the bullpen is stacked and the rotation is somewhat vulnerable but also full. He was trade bait as soon as he made his first start of the year. All in all, I didn’t see him helping much once he was sent down.

George Kontos and Phil Coke, both of Double-A Trenton, are solid starting pitchers. Kontos is a nasty righty with significant command and control issues. Coke is old for the league (26) and not a power guy but he’s a southpaw. These players were probably going to be in discussion as filler in just about any trade the Yankees made this summer. With so many pitchers ahead of them and younger ones on the way (such as Zach McAllister and Dellin Betances), they were expendable.

Jose Tabata is the most intriguing piece that Pittsburgh acquired.

The outfielder will turn 20 in August and was ranked number 37 on the Baseball America Top 100 Prosepcts list in February. However, he has been terrible at AA and almost certainly damaged his stock between his lousy play and attitude incidents, which include an instance when he walked out of a game earlier in the year (at New Britain, in the 7th inning, I believe). He may be young but a reality check is in order, and he’s still very, very far away from the big leagues. Fernando Martinez of the Mets is what the Pirates are hoping Tabata will turn into within the next year or so.

The only guy I care about in the long term is Tabata. Did we sell low? Perhaps. But there’s no way we would have gotten Nady and Marte for complete junk. They needed a good prospect and they got one. His makeup questionable and development stuttered by injury and a poor season, Brian Cashman figured it was worth a roll of the dice. Chances are good that Tabata never makes the bigs or at least doesn’t reach his projections as “The Next Manny” (Yeah, that does seem a bit extreme). Abreu and Marte could net the Yankees some great compensation this winter, and I would much rather have that on top of having a better chance this year. Who’s to say a championship isn’t in the works right now?